What are the new features of China's garment export in the first two months of this year?

Entering 2022, although the world is still facing the risk of the epidemic, the international market is recovering in a volatile and unbalanced way, and the global supply chain is gradually recovering. According to the statistics of China Customs, from January to February this year, on the basis of the high growth and high base at the beginning of last year, China's garment exports (including clothing accessories, the same below) reached 25.46 billion US dollars, up 6.1% year on year. Although the trend of growth continues, the growth rate is lower than that of the same period last year.

The export growth rate of knitted apparel dropped significantly

From January to February, the export of knitted clothing was 11.49 billion US dollars, up 18.5% year on year, significantly lower than the growth rate of over 40% last year. The export of woven clothing was USD 10.81 billion, up 13.1% year on year, but the export volume decreased 16.4% year on year. Apparel accessories export $890 million, up 17.3% year on year; The export of plastic vulcanized garments and accessories was us $2.27 billion, down 64.6% year-on-year, mainly due to a sharp decline of 78.6% in the export of medical gloves.

Commuter clothing exports increased significantly

From January to February, the exports of other major clothing categories increased except infant clothing exports, which decreased by 1%. With the reduction of home isolation and the gradual resumption of outdoor commuting abroad, the export of outerwear has increased significantly. Exports of overcoats and winter clothing grew the fastest, by nearly 40%. Exports of skirts, shirts, T-shirts, sportswear and swimsuits all increased by more than 20%. Due to the slowdown in demand growth and the large base of last year, the export growth of household clothing has slowed down this year. The export growth of underwear/pajamas and corsets is around 10%.

Exports to emerging markets grew faster than traditional markets

From January to February, the export of clothing to the United States was 5.93 billion DOLLARS, up only 2.7% year on year, significantly slower than the growth rate of 24% in the whole of last year. Exports to the EU totaled 4.96 billion US dollars, up 9.9% year on year, higher than the average growth rate of exports to the world. Exports to Japan fell 10.5% to $2.22 billion, the only decline among major markets.

From January to February, exports to "Belt and Road" countries increased by 15%, higher than the average growth rate of exports. Exports to emerging markets showed a diverging trend, with exports to ASEAN and Latin America up 33.7% and 41.1% respectively, while exports to the Middle East and Africa fell 6.4% and 9.6% respectively. Exports to Australia, Britain and South Korea increased by 12.7 percent, 7.4 percent and 10.8 percent, respectively, while exports to Russia decreased by 40.6 percent.

After the potential prospect

Downside risks to the global economy increase: On 24 March, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 to 2.6 percent from 3.6 percent.

Correction from high levels in the US market: IN the past three months, THE US CPI has risen by 7.0%, 7.5% and 7.9% year on year. The New York Fed survey also showed consumers expecting higher inflation and slower income growth. It is expected that the demand for textile and clothing will fall from the historical high in 2021, and the import demand will remain strong in the first half of the year, and the growth rate will decrease in the second half of the year.

The outlook for recovery in the EU is clouded: demand was expected to return to pre-pandemic levels in the first half of 2022 as the pandemic was gradually unsealed and commuting and social life began to resume. But energy prices pushed eurozone inflation up 5.8 per cent in February from a year earlier, the fourth consecutive month of record highs. The euro broke seven against the renminbi for the first time in seven years. The recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine will no doubt continue to drive up inflation in the EU, hit consumer confidence hard and slow the recovery.

Weak Recovery in Japan: Household consumption did not rebound after the full lifting of the epidemic emergency in Japan. The yen recently fell to a five-year low against the dollar. In the shadow of global economic downside risks, the likelihood of the Japanese market returning to its pre-pandemic size in 2022 has further diminished.

The gap between consumer demand in emerging markets and developed countries is widening: According to the World Bank, many developing countries are unlikely to recover fully in the coming years. Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to experience a gap of 5.5 and 4.2 percentage points of GDP per capita compared to pre-pandemic levels. A prolonged downturn will exacerbate poverty and inequality, preventing a full market recovery.